Why Slots Are Beatable
A simple guide to understanding AP slots.
This post is a lesson on how to win playing slot machines — a break down of why slot machines can be statistically positive for the player.
There’s a lot already written online about hustling slots. It’s a lot of information to digest for someone completely new to the topic. This post is the least overwhelming explanation on advantage slots — with actionable advice — that you will find.
By the end, you’ll understand the concepts and can continue on to the next post about the culture of slot hustling, using player’s cards, and dealing with competition, Actually Winning At Slots.
But if you’re new to advantage play skip the link and continue reading this post.
When I go to the gas station, I check the Ultimate X machines for leftover multipliers. It’s a game I play to pay for gas, or in last night’s case, ice cream.
Ultimate X Video Poker
Ultimate X, The OG Hustle
Ultimate X has been around for close to two decades, and it’s been talked about at great length on forums and websites dedicated to advantage slots. Rather than go in depth into Ultimate X strategy, I’m just going to explain the concept. It’s quite simple. So simple that I’ve taught my precious 80-year old, Vegas Matt loving, slot playing neighbor how to check machines at the video poker bars nearby. Sometimes we will take an afternoon trip for nachos and she’ll take one side of the bar, I’ll take the other.
Tell me you grew up in Las Vegas without telling me you grew up in Las Vegas.
On a standard video poker machine the maximum number of credits you are able to bet is 5.
Video Poker pay table for 1 to 5 credits wagered.
When a casino, app, or website lists the house edge for a video poker game, the edge assumes the player bets 5 credits. For the Jacks Or Better video poker game pictured, the house edge when betting the maximum 5 credits is 0.46%. The player can expect a 99.54% return on their money over the long run.
Betting fewer credits raises the house edge substantially because the royal flush pays significantly worse odds. Betting 1 credit on the same machine creates a 1.63% house edge and lowers the return to 98.37%, meaning the casino’s advantage is more than three times larger. Nearly all of that difference comes from the reduced odds on the royal flush. (That’s it for video poker math, stay with me.)
Video Poker ad targeting savvy gamblers.
How is Ultimate X video poker different?
The maximum bet in Ultimate X is 10 credits however the pay table is the same as a standard video poker machine where the player’s max bet is 5 credits — the odds are not better because the player doubles his maximum bet. Instead, for those 5 extra credits that the player wagers, they are rewarded with multipliers on the next hand dealt.
In my local Chevron, I look at the Ultimate X games and if there are multipliers left behind, meaning a player was awarded them but they left before the next hand dealt, I can put my money into the machine, press deal, and the multipliers will be applied to my next hand.
The multipliers hang on the Ultimate X screen until the next hand is dealt, even if you cash out.
So why is this a positive EV situation? Because I can bet only 5 credits and the next hand dealt will still have the winnings multiplied. I don’t have to bet 10 credits to use the multipliers. I only have to bet 10 credits to be rewarded multipliers, which is a losing proposition.
The first photo in this post, but now you should understand what it all means.
At the gas station, I put $3 in the Ultimate X machine pictured above. I played one hand of 5 credits. I then looked at all other Ultimate X game types offered (Double Bonus, Deuces Wild, etc), and all denominations (5c, 10c, 25c). It took me about a minute and a half. When it was all said and done, the author of this high-level, one-of-a-kind, advantage play substack walked away with $10. My ice cream was $4.49. I walked out of that Chevron with $2.51 profit and my head held high.
Why can slot machines be profitable, in general?
Because some slot machines have variable states, as is the case with Ultimate X. Civilian gamblers will walk away from a machine when it’s in a positive state. Ultimate X with any number of leftover multipliers is in a positive state.
A machine that says on its front “Must Hit By $500” showing a progressive meter that says “$498.50” is in a positive state. The slot hustler knows that sometime before the progressive meter gets to $500, the machine is going to pay the progressive jackpot. Only $1.50 short of $500, they know it’s going to hit soon — very soon.
In the photo below, the progressive is at $455.71. This machine is not in a positive state. How do I know? Because there are mathematical formulas you can perform involving the distance between the current amount of the progressive, the ‘must hit by’ amount, and how many dollars wagered moves the progressive up one cent, or a few cents.
Must Hit By machine NOT in a positive state. Keep walking.
I’d estimate that 20-25% of machines in modern American casinos are beatable. The concept that a gambler can play a machine and “bank” or collect something whether it be free spins, gold coins, or multipliers is an attractive one. The gambler can see something building on the slot machine’s graphic and be inspired to sit at the machine longer than they would if they didn’t feel like they were getting close to a jackpot or bonus round.
And this is how they get you.
Some machines have legitimate banking features that will award the player something extra when the feature hits a certain threshold. And some machines look like they have banking features but really, they don’t.
An example of a true advantage slot is Golden Egypt. This is one of the most well known AP slots currently available.
Golden Egypt, not yet in a positive state.
In Golden Egypt, during game play, the player is randomly awarded coins that appear at the top of the screen. When one column acquires 2 coins, the column will act as Wild for the next 2 spins. Not too get too deep into this — because I’m trying to keep this conceptually simple and not overload those of you who’ve never been introduced to AP slots — the first 3 columns are the most valuable. When one of the first 3 columns is wild, the player has an edge. With only 2 coins collected at the top of the screen in the above photo, a slot hustler will not play the machine. It’s not positive EV.
If a hustler saw the next screen pictured, they would absolutely play.
Golden Egypt, in a positive state.
So what’s the strategy for Golden Egypt? When should you play? How many coins collected at the top are needed to push the slot machine into a positive state?
Well, the all-knowing, and super trustworthy Wizard Of Odds says, “play if and only if there are at least two coins in the first three rows.”
I used to hustle slots, and I used to use the Wizard’s strategy. Now I’ll only play if there are 3 coins, with at least 2 in the first 3 columns. Why am I more conservative than what the Wiz suggests? Because a slot AP who knows more than me told me to be more conservative. That’s really about it.
The strategy on advantage slots relies heavily on the slot machine’s RTP — Return To Player. Casinos have the ability to change the RTP on some machines. That’s how casinos can put up billboards that read, “Our slots are looser.” They actually are. The slot hustler’s defense to not knowing the true RTP is to play a conservative strategy.
Another ad targeting savvy gamblers.
How they try and trick you.
I’ll tell you how! The graphic on a machine will appear to be banking something, but in reality it’s just a meaningless graphic and no matter how many coins go in the animated bucket or how big the cartoon tiger grows, the player cannot have knowledge of when a bonus will be awarded by the graphic alone.
Case in point: Fu Dai, sometimes referred to as Chubby Pots
Original Fu Dai, not beatable.
The pots on the Fu Dai machine’s graphic get larger as you play. They are meaningless. You cannot estimate when a jackpot will hit based on the size of the green, red, or purple pot.
A closer look.
Not a play, don’t fall for it.
The red pot appears to have “collected” more coins than the red pots in the previous photo. it doesn’t mean anything. The player can’t use the graphic to determine if there’s an edge — when the jackpot or bonus round will be awarded.
How are you supposed to know which machines are actual variable state slots and which machines are fake? For the average person reading this my advice is to find a community. Once you know what to look for, finding games becomes easy. But until you do, it’s a pure guessing game.
For instance, I just told you that Fu Dai was a fake game. Well, the one I posted photos of is. There are other variations of Fu Dai that are absolutely beatable.
What some of you feel like right now trying to grasp AP slots. And that’s okay.
This post was inspired by a handsome civilian with a normal job and little exposure to casinos who asked me about advantage play slots. I told him that I wasn’t the best person to ask. The landscape is always changing and I’m not on the slot streets regularly. My advice to him was to join an AP slot community if he really wanted to understand the hustle whether it be an educational site, discord group, or talking with people on Twitter who have the words “AP” and “Slots” in their handle.
Reasonably priced subscription communities with up-to date AP slot information do exist. When I asked my friends who actually do hustle slots to recommend one for the handsome civilian they said SlotExpert. I don’t know the person behind the site, and I don’t have a subscription. I did look through the posts from a free account and yeah, for $40 a subscription to SlotExpert looks worth it for anyone who wants more information about how to beat slot machines. (After I wrote this SlotExpert gave me a discount code — 20% off first month or annual with code RXGAMBLE)
My other suggestion for advantage players of any level is a new book on AP slots published by Huntington Press called Breaking The Slot Code. It’s on my reading list as well. From what others have said and written I’m guessing it’s also worth the price of admission.
In Conclusion
I hope you now understand the concept behind beatable slot machines. It is not a feeling, nor is it the sentiment that a machine is “due.” There is a science behind advantage slots. And there is an art.
After I told the handsome AP slot enthusiast about how much I don’t know, I started talking about the things I do know. Specifically, how to act in the casino while hustling and how to get the money once you’re armed with the strategy.
What is the proper etiquette when you run into another hustler?
When is the best time to check for opportunities?
Should you use a player’s card?
Can you play with someone else’s players card?
What if you hit a jackpot?
How should you cash slot tickets?
Will you get backed off for playing slots?
I begin to answer all of these questions in the post, Actually Winning At Slots.
@Gina Fiore
Quick Question: when you come across a video poker machine in a positive state with multipliers on the screen (as in the case of your post), how many 5-credit plays does that entitle you to before the multipliers disappear?